EchoBlog

After going two years without one inch of snow in a calendar day, we could do it twice in one week, but that’s not a lock.

Wednesday’s brutal wind chills will ease a bit Thursday ahead of our next chance of snow Thursday night and Friday. We anticipate less snow than the last storm, but it could be enough to cause some delays and cancellations Friday.

Our confidence in accumulating snow is lower than it was for the last storm because this one is a drier system, we’ll be toward the southern edge of the precipitation, and temperatures won’t be quite as cold.

Whatever happens, it’s cold and windy again this weekend, before significantly warmer weather arrives next week.

Storm timing

8 p.m. Thursday to 2 a.m. Friday: Possible flurries or a snow shower. Little or no accumulation. Temperatures: 30 to 35. (Except 35 to 40 in Southern Maryland.)

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2 a.m. to 5 a.m. Friday: Areas of light snow develop, especially west of Interstate 95. Dusting possible. Temperatures: Upper 20s to mid-30s. (Except mid-to-upper 30s in Southern Maryland.)

5 a.m. to 12 p.m. Friday: Periods of mainly light snow; intensity may increase some north of the Beltway. Some accumulation on roads possible. Rain could mix with snow in Southern Maryland. Temperatures: Upper 20s and low 30s. (Except mid-30s in Southern Maryland.)

12 p.m. to 5 p.m. Friday: Light snow gradually tapers off from southwest to northeast. Temperatures in the 30s.

Precipitation type

This one should be mostly or all snow for most of the region, but it could mix with rain or sleet in Southern Maryland.

Accumulation potential

We think a coating to 2 inches is the most likely accumulation, with amounts increasing from south to north across the region. It’s unlikely to be more than 3 or 4 inches anywhere.

Forecast confidence

While we ended up slightly underestimating snow amounts for the last storm, we were pretty confident in at least an inch or two of snow and that roads would become hazardous because of temperatures several degrees below freezing. We are less confident about the forecast for this storm.

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First, this storm carries a little less moisture. Less than an inch of snow could fall if this system comes in drier than currently modeled, especially for southern portions of the region.

Second, temperatures on Friday could rise to right around freezing in some locations, especially in southern portions of the region where snow could be lighter. That could reduce the impact on roads in those locations, especially treated main roads, although side roads and sidewalks might still be snowy and slick because the ground has been so cold.

Forecast analysis

The approaching storm will be diving southeastward from western Canada before crossing our region Friday. Such “clipper” systems are usually drier and have limited snowfall potential because of their northerly origins, unless low pressure rapidly develops close enough to the coast to pull in moisture from the Atlantic Ocean, according to Wes Junker, the Capital Weather Gang’s winter weather expert.

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“A packet of upper-level energy is forecast to track just to our south. Typically, the highest probability of accumulating snow is located in a narrow stripe to the north of such a feature. Shift the feature north a bit, and we are likely to be fringed with only a little snow. Shift the feature south, and our probability for accumulating snow increases,” Junker said. “Currently, the best chance of getting a couple of inches of snow is north and east of the District, while accumulations south of the city should be lighter.”

Jason Samenow contributed to this report.

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